For an industry that has spent the past two years clawing its way back from rock bottom, the last thing trucking needed was another economic curveball. Yet, over the weekend, former President Donald Trump rolled out a policy that could jackknife the entire recovery before it even gains momentum.
The new plan? A 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, two of the United States’ largest trading partners. But this isn’t just about trade. Unlike past tariffs meant to balance economic advantages, this move is designed to pressure Canada and Mexico into taking stronger action against illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling at the border.
What does that mean for trucking? Nothing good. With 85% of U.S.-Mexico trade and 67% of U.S.-Canada trade moving by truck, the industry is now facing skyrocketing costs, supply chain disruptions, and the very real possibility of a full-blown trade war.
This isn’t just a trucking industry problem—this is a wallet problem for everyone who eats, drives, or buys anything.
Canada and Mexico Are Hitting Back—Hard
Tariffs are rarely a one-sided affair. When one country slaps tariffs on imports, its trading partners almost always return the favor. This time is no exception. Within hours of Trump’s announcement, Canada fired back with a 25% tariff on $20 billion worth of U.S. imports.
What does that mean? Everything from fresh produce to clothing and household items just got more expensive.
Mexico isn’t staying silent either. While officials are still finalizing the details, they’ve already made it clear that retaliatory tariffs are coming—and they won’t be small. Given that Mexico recently surpassed China as America’s largest trading partner, their response could leave an even bigger dent in U.S. exports.
And then there’s China. While they weren’t the main target of this particular move, they still got hit with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Historically, China has never been the type to take these things lightly, and if past trade disputes are any indication, the global supply chain is in for another rollercoaster ride.
But perhaps the most damaging move of all? Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on Canadian crude oil—which supplies over 80% of all U.S. crude imports. If you thought fuel prices were bad before, just wait.
Trucking Just Got a Massive Price Hike It Can’t Afford
If there’s one industry that doesn’t do well with unexpected expenses, it’s trucking. Margins are already razor-thin, and with the cost of fuel, equipment, and labor on the rise, carriers have been operating in survival mode for years. This latest round of tariffs might be the knockout punch for many small and mid-sized fleets.
Chris Spear, CEO of the American Trucking Associations, didn’t mince words when he warned that a 25% tariff on Mexican imports could drive the price of a new tractor up by $35,000.
To put that in perspective:
- Small carriers that barely break even each month could be forced off the road entirely.
- Larger fleets might survive, but they’ll be spending millions more on equipment alone.
- Consumers? They’ll end up paying more for everything.
This isn’t speculation—it’s basic economics. When it costs more to haul freight, maintain fleets, and fuel trucks, those costs have to be passed down the line.
Prepare for higher grocery prices, increased costs on electronics, and an even steeper sticker shock at the gas pump.
Jason Miller, a supply chain expert at Michigan State University, described the situation bluntly: “An all-out tariff war is the one thing that could wreck trucking’s shot at a real recovery in 2025.”
Déjà Vu: Are We Reliving the 2018 Tariff Crisis?
This isn’t the first time trucking and the supply chain have been put through the wringer by tariff wars. In 2018, similar tariffs caused complete chaos, triggering:
- Warehouses overflowing as businesses hoarded inventory.
- Ports turning into parking lots, with ships stuck for weeks waiting to unload cargo.
- Freight rates spiking as companies fought to move goods before costs climbed even higher.
The scary part? It’s already happening again.
According to a recent survey:
- 43% of businesses are shifting supply chains to avoid tariff costs.
- 20% are stockpiling goods, trying to buy before prices skyrocket.
- 37% are doing both.
Paul Brashier, VP at ITS Logistics, confirmed that retailers started stockpiling back in November, anticipating a trade war was coming. Auto parts, clothing, and manufacturing essentials are some of the top items businesses have been scrambling to secure before tariff hikes take effect.
If this continues, trucking will face another round of freight congestion, shipping delays, and rate volatility.
What Trucking Fleets Must Do NOW
If trucking companies haven’t already started planning for this, they’re about to get steamrolled.
Industry analysts are urging fleets to rework their budgets immediately. With diesel prices set to rise, equipment costs climbing, and supply chain disruptions looming, fleet owners must adapt quickly if they want to stay profitable.
Brian Whitlock, a senior analyst at Gartner, issued a direct warning:
“Trucking companies that don’t prepare now will be left scrambling later.”
Scrambling means lost revenue, failed deliveries, and—potentially—bankrupt carriers. The smartest fleets are already adjusting for what’s coming next.
What Happens Next?
One thing is certain: This isn’t just a trucking problem—it’s a national economic problem.
If these tariffs hold, the ripple effect will be massive:
- Fuel prices will skyrocket, hurting both carriers and consumers.
- Freight costs will increase, making everything from food to furniture more expensive.
- Trucking’s long-awaited recovery may collapse before it even begins.
The real question is whether a negotiated truce is still on the table, or if we’re heading for another long, drawn-out trade war.
Either way, trucking is about to experience one of the most challenging years yet. For those in the industry, it’s time to brace for impact—because this ride just got a whole lot bumpier.
Sources:
Politico: Canada Hits Back With Tariffs
NY Post: Trump’s Tariff Announcement
White House Fact Sheet on Tariffs