Every year in trucking, December shows up like a stress test nobody asked for.
The calendar tightens. Weather turns ugly. Retailers push harder. Drivers feel rushed. Dispatch feels boxed in. And suddenly, everything that was “good enough” the rest of the year starts breaking down.
According to Motive’s 2025–2026 Holiday Outlook Report, the freight market is no longer in freefall. Carrier exits have slowed, capacity contraction has softened, and the industry has entered what analysts describe as a pause after a hard reset.
That sounds like relief.
But here’s the truth most fleets learn the hard way.
A calmer market does not mean a safer operation.
It just means the pressure shows up differently.
And during the holidays, that pressure exposes exactly where fleet safety, security, and compliance systems are weakest.
The Freight Market Stabilized, Not Recovered
After several brutal years, the freight market finally stopped bleeding at the same rate.
Through October 2025, only 2,125 carriers exited the market. That is a sharp contrast to roughly 15,000 exits at the same point in 2024 and nearly 30,800 in 2023. Using data from the FMCSA, U.S. Census Bureau, and U.S. Department of Transportation, Motive describes the current environment as a flatter baseline rather than a rebound.
Capacity is still contracting, just at a slower and more controlled pace.
That matters because many fleets are operating leaner than ever. Fewer buffers. Less margin for error. Less room to absorb mistakes.
Which makes the holiday season far less forgiving.
Holiday Pressure Changes Driver Behavior Fast
One of the most telling findings in Motive’s report is not about volume. It’s about behavior.
In the week leading up to Christmas, speeding events increased by 12% compared to normal operating periods. That jump did not come from a surge in reckless drivers. It came from rising urgency across the system.
Holiday pressure shows up in very specific ways:
• Tighter delivery windows
• Time-sensitive retail freight
• Reduced daylight hours
• Winter weather complicating routes
• Customers expecting “just make it happen” solutions
When pressure rises, safety margins shrink.
Motive’s data shows that 66% of Christmas Day collisions occurred on wet, snowy, or icy roads. Darkness adds another layer of risk. While 38% of crashes happened after dark, collisions during nighttime conditions were 1.7 times more likely on Christmas Day.
Those are not flukes. Those are predictable outcomes when pressure meets poor conditions.
The Holiday Surge Isn’t Bigger
It’s More Intense
From the outside, it might feel like holiday freight volumes explode every year. The data tells a different story.
Motive’s Big Box Retail Index, which tracks truck movement at the top 50 retailers, shows 2025 freight movement up only 3.5% year over year. That mirrors 2024 almost exactly.
In other words, demand is not spiking wildly. It is flattening, just as it has in prior years.
So why does it feel harder?
Because the system is tighter.
Same volume.
Less flexibility.
Higher expectations.
As Motive’s Hamish Woodrow explains, shipment patterns remain familiar, but driver risk behavior increases. Tight schedules combined with winter conditions and holiday urgency push drivers closer to the edge.
It’s not about more freight.
It’s about less margin.
Cargo Theft Thrives When Systems Are Rushed
While safety risks climb on the road, security risks climb everywhere else.
The holiday season creates ideal conditions for cargo theft.
• More freight moving quickly
• More drop yards and transfers
• Longer dwell times
• Less staffing in some locations
• Faster decisions with fewer checks
Industry data paints a clear picture.
Cargo theft increased approximately 27% in 2024, with average losses exceeding $200,000 per incident. By late 2025, reported cargo theft losses surpassed $318 million nationwide, with average shipment values climbing to nearly $279,000.
Certain commodities are hit hardest during the holidays. Food and beverage loads, electronics, household goods, and vehicle parts consistently top the list.
For fleets, cargo theft is not just a loss event. It is a disruption that affects customer trust, insurance costs, and operational stability.
And for smaller fleets, one stolen load can cause serious financial strain.
Fraud Is the Quiet Multiplier Nobody Sees Coming
Cargo theft is loud. Fraud is quiet.
And during the holidays, fraud becomes harder to detect and easier to miss.
Motive estimates that 19% of fleet spend is lost to fraud or theft. Forty-four percent of fleets report a significant financial impact tied to fraudulent activity. Fuel fraud remains one of the fastest-growing threats.
An astonishing 96% of U.S. companies report attempted fuel fraud.
The holiday surge makes detection harder because transaction volumes increase and processing speeds accelerate. Reconciliation often lags behind reality.
By the time someone notices a pattern, the losses have already stacked up.
No accident report.
No police call.
Just money gone.
These Are Not Seasonal Problems
This is where many fleets get the story wrong.
The holidays do not create safety issues, theft, or fraud. They amplify vulnerabilities that exist all year.
The same weaknesses show up every December:
• Rushed decisions
• Inconsistent enforcement
• Gaps in oversight
• Systems that rely on “normal conditions” to work
Add holiday urgency and winter weather, and those gaps become impossible to ignore.
Long-term forces are also reshaping risk. Geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and sourcing changes continue to alter freight flows. Imports from China are down nearly 19% year-to-date compared to 2024, reflecting structural shifts rather than seasonal variation.
Fleets are entering peak season with more complexity and more exposure than they had a year ago, even if the market feels calmer on the surface.
What Prepared Fleets Do Differently
The fleets that make it through December without damage are rarely lucky. They are disciplined.
Motive recommends steps that experienced operators already understand:
• Targeted coaching before the pre-Christmas rush
• Real-time feedback when risky behavior appears
• Routing that accounts for winter conditions and darkness
• Clear after-dark driving expectations
• Strong controls around fuel usage and transaction monitoring
These are not holiday-only fixes. They are leadership decisions.
Prepared fleets don’t wait for pressure to reveal problems. They address them early.
The Eclipse DOT Perspective
At Eclipse DOT, this pattern repeats every year.
Accidents don’t happen because it’s December.
Fraud doesn’t spike because of gift buying.
Cargo theft doesn’t wait for holiday schedules.
These problems show up when pressure meets weak systems.
The holidays simply turn the volume up.
That’s why compliance, safety, and leadership cannot be seasonal priorities. They must be built into daily operations, reinforced through training, and supported by systems that hold up when stress increases.
December does not forgive shortcuts.
It exposes them.
Fleets that enter the holiday season prepared come out stronger. Fleets that rely on hope and habit come out with damage they didn’t plan for.
The question is not whether holiday pressure will test your operation.
It will.
The real question is whether your systems are strong enough to pass.
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Sources
• Verisk CargoNet holiday cargo theft warnings — Truckinginfo
• Cargo theft trends and loss values — Circadian Risk
• Holiday cargo theft risks — The Trucker
• Peak-season theft outlook — Work Truck Online
• Escalating cargo theft and organized crime trends — FreightWaves