If you were expecting November to deliver a big end-of-year spike in heavy-duty truck orders, you’re in for a reality check. The numbers are brutal. According to ACT Research and FTR Transportation Intelligence, Class 8 truck orders in November were barely half of what they were a year ago. That’s right — fleets hit the brakes hard. And it’s not just a November slump; this downturn has been building for months.
Even with clearer tariffs and a bit of regulatory guidance, fleets are still hitting pause. Replacement plans? Deferred. Expansion plans? Shelved. Equipment orders? On hold. Right now, the message is loud and clear: “Not today, friends. Maybe next year.”
Class 8 Orders Crash: The Numbers Don’t Lie
November 2025 was tough, even by trucking-industry standards. Heavy-duty truck and tractor orders plunged between 44% and 47% year-over-year, according to ACT and FTR — two firms that live and breathe commercial vehicle market data.
-
FTR’s tally: 20,200 Class 8 net orders in November, down 17% from October and well below the 10-year November average of 28,910. Over the past 12 months, fleets have ordered 214,797 Class 8 vehicles.
-
ACT’s numbers: Slightly lower at 19,700 Class 8 units, a 47% drop from November 2024. Broader Class 5–8 orders totaled roughly 36,000 — down 33% year-over-year.
Translation: fleets are gripping their wallets tighter than a driver holding onto the wheel during a sudden downpour.
And this isn’t just a one-off hiccup. The slump has been building all year:
-
June 2025 hit a 15-year low, with FTR recording just 8,900 Class 8 orders — less than half the 10-year average for June.
-
ACT pegged June at 9,400 units, still significantly depressed.
-
Cumulative net orders for 2025 (September 2024 onward) are down 15–32% depending on which data set you follow.
Simply put, the numbers aren’t just weak — they’re signaling a market in cruise-control mode, waiting for clarity and demand before stepping on the gas.
Why Fleets Are Pumping the Brakes
So why the hesitation? It’s a perfect storm of industry headwinds.
-
Tariff volatility and rising costs: Steel, aluminum, and fabricated components saw substantial duty hikes mid-year, squeezing manufacturing margins.
-
Soft freight demand and excess capacity: Many fleets are operating below capacity. When freight demand is sluggish, there’s no urgency to buy new trucks.
-
High financing and equipment costs: Elevated capital expenses and tight margins are forcing carriers to delay investments.
-
Regulatory uncertainty: The looming EPA 2027 NOx emissions rules, combined with shifting trade policies, have many fleet managers taking a cautious approach.
Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT, put it plainly:
“Even with recent EPA clarity, the bottleneck is profitability. Spot rates remain low, supply is coming off the market, but demand in key freight sectors is still lagging.”
Translation: fleets aren’t losing sleep over missing a new truck. They’re losing sleep over keeping their existing rigs running efficiently.
On-Highway vs. Vocational: Who’s Moving?
Both on-highway and vocational segments are feeling the pinch — but not equally.
-
On-highway trucks are seeing sharper declines, reflecting weak long-haul demand.
-
Vocational trucks — used in construction, local hauling, and specialized operations — are holding up slightly better. The demand here is cautious but steady.
Think of it as the tortoise-and-hare scenario: vocational trucks inching forward, on-highway rigs idling in neutral.
Medium-Duty Trucks Aren’t Immune
Medium-duty trucks (Classes 5–7) are also feeling the chill. ACT’s preliminary numbers show November orders fell 2.9% year-over-year to 16,300 units after an 11% drop in October.
Vieth explains:
“Small businesses are being squeezed by tariffs, uncertainty, and consumer pessimism usually reserved for recessions.”
So even smaller operators, who usually pivot more quickly, are holding off on purchases. This shows the slowdown isn’t just in Class 8 — it’s broad-based.
Peeking Into 2026: Any Signs of a Rebound?
With all the gloom, is there a silver lining as we roll into 2026? Maybe — but it’s modest and heavily conditional.
-
Regulatory and tariff clarity has improved: Fleets now have a better idea of what to expect from heavy-duty truck tariffs and the upcoming EPA NOx rule.
-
Some segments may recover sooner: Vocational fleets could cautiously add capacity if local demand strengthens.
-
Freight fundamentals must bounce back: Long-haul demand, utilization rates, and freight rates need to improve before new orders spike.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst at FTR, sums it up:
“Clarity alone isn’t enough. Weak freight fundamentals, limited carrier profitability, and high capital costs keep fleets on the sidelines. Until freight volumes and rates recover, order activity will remain uneven.”
Bottom line: fleets are in “economy mode,” focusing on cost control, asset utilization, and maintenance discipline — not growth.
What This Means for OEMs, Suppliers & Fleet Managers
This slump isn’t just a line on a chart — it affects every corner of the industry:
-
Manufacturers and OEMs: Order books have shrunk, production planning is shaky, and inventory levels are piling up. Margins are under pressure, and some companies may cut capacity or adjust staffing.
-
Parts suppliers and aftermarket players: With new-truck builds delayed, demand for maintenance, retrofits, and spare parts may rise as fleets extend the life of existing rigs.
-
Fleet managers: If you’re thinking about buying new trucks, consider pausing. Budget might be better spent on upgrades, maintenance, or efficiency improvements until the market clears.
-
Smaller operators & medium-duty fleets: While squeezed, they have an opportunity to act strategically if freight demand strengthens.
The Bottom Line: Patience, Strategy, and Watching the Road Ahead
Fleets are cautious. Truck makers are watching every move. Suppliers are holding their breath. As 2026 approaches, the heavy-duty truck market won’t accelerate just because the calendar flipped. It needs real triggers: rising freight demand, better profitability, and stabilized costs.
For now, patience, strategy, and careful monitoring of freight and rate trends are key. Truck makers, fleet managers, and suppliers — the highway ahead is long, winding, and anything but predictable.