Grab your coffee, folks. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) just served up a fresh batch of regulatory drama — and this one smells like diesel fumes and popcorn. On one side, you’ve got farmers, biofuel makers, and rural America saying, “It’s about time.” On the other, you’ve got refiners, fuel makers, and industry lobbyists crying foul like a Little League coach after a bad call.
The stakes? Billions of gallons of fuel, billions of dollars in credits, and the future of what powers our fleets.
Welcome to the latest showdown in the never-ending tug-of-war between corn and crude.
The Waiver Problem: A Hall Pass Gone Wild
Let’s rewind. For years, small oil refineries have had a get-out-of-jail-free card called the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE). The idea was to protect refineries processing less than 75,000 barrels of oil a day from getting bulldozed by the cost of blending ethanol or biodiesel.
Sounds noble. Protect the little guys, right? But here’s the problem: those waivers didn’t just shield the mom-and-pop refiners. They gutted demand for biofuels. Every gallon not blended is a gallon farmers don’t sell. And if you’ve ever talked to a farmer in Iowa or Kansas, you know they’re not planting millions of acres of corn just to let it sit in a bin and rot.
Fast-forward to August 2025. The EPA cleared a backlog of 175 petitions for exemptions dating back to 2016. Here’s the breakdown:
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63 full exemptions (waiving all obligations)
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77 partial exemptions (refiners blend some, skip some)
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28 flat-out denials
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7 tossed out completely
That wiped out a staggering 5.34 billion renewable fuel credits (RINs). Only 1.39 billion credits survived the purge. For perspective, that’s enough fuel to keep America’s corn belt busy for years — gone in the stroke of a pen.
Farmers and biofuel producers saw billions in demand vanish, while refiners enjoyed the break. No wonder folks in rural America have been looking at Washington like, “Whose side are you on?”
EPA’s “Make-It-Right” Moment
Now the EPA is scrambling to rebalance the scales. The agency has rolled out two proposals that would shift some of those waived obligations back onto bigger refiners:
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Option 1: Pay Half Now
For 2023–2025, large refiners would cover 50% of the waived blending requirements. That’s about 550 million gallons of ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel put back into circulation. -
Option 2: Pay All Later
Instead of half now, refiners would cover 100% of the missed gallons — but only during 2026–2027. That’s Washington’s version of “we’ll pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.”
No matter which option wins, farmers see a light at the end of the tunnel. Refiners see a train coming at them.
Wall Street Smells Corn Mash
If you want to know who the early winners are, don’t look at Washington. Look at Wall Street.
The moment EPA’s notice dropped, investors sprinted toward anything that smelled like biofuel:
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Darling Ingredients Inc. jumped nearly 10%.
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Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) gained 4%.
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Bunge Global SA popped 4.7%.
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Even smaller refiners like Delek US and CVR Energy climbed.
Why would refiners’ stocks go up when they’re facing bigger bills? Because traders don’t always bet on logic — they bet on volatility. And nothing creates volatility like Washington tinkering with billion-dollar fuel mandates.
Farmers: “Finally, Somebody Gets It”
For biofuel producers and farmers, the reaction was downright celebratory. Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, said the proposal proves the EPA understands just how vital ethanol is to the rural economy.
Translation: Washington finally remembered that America’s heartland doesn’t just grow crops — it fuels the nation.
For too long, farmers have been the ones taking the punch when waivers get handed out. They’re told to “grow more, sell more, feed America.” But when blending requirements vanish, so does their market.
This proposal doesn’t fix everything, but it’s a step toward fairness.
Refiners: “This Is Nonsense”
On the flip side, refiners are furious. The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) blasted the plan, calling it a “multibillion-dollar addendum” to an already $70 billion-a-year Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).
In their words: “Americans and U.S. refiners should not have to pay for this nonsense.”
That’s industry-speak for “This is going to cost us money, which means it’s going to cost you money.” And let’s be real — they’re not wrong. If refiners eat new costs, expect some of it to show up at the pump.
The Ag-Fuel Marriage: It’s Complicated
Here’s where things get interesting. Renewable fuels aren’t just farm subsidies dressed up as climate policy. They’re a legitimate economic engine.
The USDA projects that more than half of all U.S. soybean oil — about 15.5 billion pounds — will go into biofuels in 2025/26. That’s a record.
Think about the logistics: more blending means more crops moving from fields to processors, more renewable diesel heading to terminals, and more ethanol hitting racks. Every link in that chain needs trucks, drivers, and logistics.
That’s why fleets should be paying attention. Biofuel demand isn’t just about farmers getting a fair shake. It’s about freight volume, supply chains, and your next load.
The Politics Behind the Pump
Of course, no EPA decision comes without political crossfire. Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) wasted no time introducing the Protect Consumers from Reallocation Costs Act of 2025, aimed at blocking the EPA from shifting these blending obligations onto refiners.
Translation: “Don’t stick Utah with higher gas prices because Washington wants to play farm hero.”
The fight is far from over. Expect more hearings, more lobbyists, and more shouting before the dust settles.
Why Trucking and Fleets Should Care
Now, if you’re reading this as a fleet manager, owner-operator, or safety director, you might be thinking: “Neat, but how does this touch my day-to-day?” Let’s break it down.
1. Fuel Costs Will Shift.
When refiners absorb new costs, you know the drill: the pump price inches up. That hits your operating budget, and fast.
2. Freight Demand Will Grow.
More blending means more crop movement. More soybeans, more corn, more ag byproducts. That means more loads for carriers, especially bulk haulers and flatbeds.
3. Compliance Ripples Out.
Every time Washington tweaks blending rules, reporting changes follow. From suppliers to contracts to carrier invoices, the paper trail gets longer. If you’re not paying attention, those changes can bite you later.
The Human Side of the Story
Let’s zoom out. Behind all these numbers are real people.
Picture a farmer in Nebraska staring at full grain bins, praying demand doesn’t collapse. Picture a truck driver in Kansas hauling soybean oil to a biodiesel plant, counting on steady loads to make the mortgage. Picture a refinery worker in Louisiana worried that new obligations might mean layoffs.
These aren’t abstract policy fights. They’re livelihoods. Every waiver, every reallocation, every EPA notice affects the man or woman standing at the pump or sitting in the cab.
The Road Ahead
The EPA will hold a public hearing on October 1 and accept comments through October 31. After that, we’ll see whether the final rule leans toward the “pay half now” or “pay all later” plan.
Either way, this isn’t just about corn versus crude. It’s about who pays, who profits, and how that trickles down to every fleet that fuels up.
So keep your eye on this one. Because whether you run a farm, a refinery, or a fleet, the EPA’s decision will shape the road you’re driving on.